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Gold? Where are we?

For our analysis of the gold and silver markets, we use twenty different indicators for determining our conclusions. Suffice it to say that things are overwhelmingly positive for the price of gold and many but not all precious metals stocks and many “juniors” as well. The major trend is positive.

If you believe the official reported nonsense on the rate of inflation, you are being deceived. For years inflation has been rising noticeably and in the 5% to 30% range.  The economist/buffoons never include fuel and food among the so many other items that have seen huge price increases.

Note well that the prices for precious metals stocks often drop precipitously. There is a key reason for that. Today there is very little inventory kept by market makers (specialists) as was done in the past. Worse yet, there is very limited comprehensive research which would attract investors. The research coverage would bring buying support if the research suggested profit potential in a stock(s). Note research coverage is no longer there to the same degree..

For a more all-encompassing bull market in gold/precious metals that would carry into the juniors, we need a severe bear market in the industrial stock market such as the Dow Industrials and S&P 500. That has already started !

Recall six or seven years ago when Germany requested their $350 billion gold bullion held in so called “safekeeping “at the New York Fed. It took them almost five years to get most of what was held…If that delivery were forced to be made, gold could have hit $2500 an ounce within three months…or perhaps much more….much more!

The US brokerage industry does not want a bull market in gold to occur as historically it brings with it a bear market in the industrial stock market. There is insufficient profitability potential in recommending and trading the precious metals markets so acknowledging  a bull market in precious metals must be avoided at all costs….in banks’ and brokerages’ best interests…not in the best interest of the investing public. Never was and never will be.

Today at the large brokerage houses, brokers are generally not permitted to solicit orders for stocks that are selling at less than five dollars a share despite the fact that many are exceptionally undervalued.

Investing in and or selling medium and small cap gold and precious metals stocks in any volume can be difficult as liquidity is poor. In-depth research is required.

Recent money supply growth has been enormous …..It is literally “out of control.” It  is contributing to enormous inflation. Same story….more dollars chasing commodities.

The American Dollar is overvalued by approximately 15% to 20%….a weaker Dollar benefits gold and most hard assets. More to follow on this.

The bottom line is that if our research is correct we are going to see a much stronger and continuing bull market in gold and precious metal stocks.

We can only (guesstimate) estimate but our research suggests that over 85% of the volume is now institutional trading volume. That is not to say that the trading desks own 85% of the shares but rather do 85% of the volume. High Valuations?  Price to Earnings ratios, Price to Sales ratios, Return on Equity and Corporate Debt have been at dangerously historical highs which has led the market to today’s problems.

Moreover the liquidity for many stocks and worse for micro-caps and juniors is poor. Buying and selling many companies’ shares can be challenging.